The SEC is set to officially acknowledge XRP and Dogecoin ETF applications this week, according to Bloomberg ETF Research analyst James Seyffart.
Firms such as Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares and WisdomTree have filed for an XRP ETF, while Grayscale and Bitwise have submitted applications for a Dogecoin ETF.
Seyffart estimates approval odds at 70% for XRP and 65% for Dogecoin. Meanwhile, he projects even higher chances for a Litecoin ETF at 90% and 70% for a Solana ETF.
Fresh Leadership Embraces Grayscale’s Solana ETF Proposal
Recently, the SEC acknowledged Grayscale’s Solana ETF proposal and invited public feedback. Notably, this is the first time the agency has recognized a Solana ETF filing, suggesting a potential shift in its approach to crypto investment products.
This acknowledgment follows leadership changes under President Donald Trump, who appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC Chair and Caroline Pham as acting Chair of the CFTC.
Both officials have embraced pro-crypto views and pushed for clearer digital asset regulations. In contrast, the previous SEC administration rejected Solana ETF applications and directed Cboe to withdraw its 19b-4 filings.
SEC Task Force to Tackle Digital Asset Classifications
Seyffart also commented on the heated debate over classifying digital assets as either securities or commodities—a decision with major regulatory and legal consequences.
He pointed out that numerous crypto lawsuits have exposed this ambiguity, affecting investor protections and compliance standards. Further, Seyffart expects the SEC and Commissioner Hester Peirce, who leads the agency’s crypto task force, to resolve some of these classification issues by the end of 2025.
The task force will help the SEC set clear regulatory boundaries, develop practical registration pathways, design effective disclosure frameworks and strategically allocate enforcement resources. In addition, it will work within Congress’s legislative framework, offering technical support as lawmakers enact changes, while also collaborating with federal agencies like the CFTC, as well as state and international partners.
Key Factors Affecting Crypto ETF Approvals
Seyffart also noted that if Democrats remained in power, the odds for a Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, HBAR, or Polkadot ETF would be extremely low.
Further, he said that an XRP ETF is unlikely until the ongoing Ripple/XRP litigation with the SEC reaches a resolution.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas agreed with these estimates, adding that the odds are strong relative to expectations and should improve as these applications move through the typical process.
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