ETH, HBAR, and SHIB Price Outlook: Bulls or Traps?

NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — Ethereum (ETH), Hedera (HBAR), and Shiba Inu (SHIB) are at a crossroads as the crypto market enters February. ETH is showing signs of bullish momentum despite ongoing market challenges, HBAR faces a key support level, and SHIB struggles with declining whale activity.

Ethereum Eyes 35% Rally Amid Strong Historical February Returns

Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $3,180 on Jan. 30, with potential signs of a breakout. A high-volume move above the falling wedge resistance could trigger a 35% upside, aligning with ETH’s strong historical performance in February.

ETH/USD 1-day price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Ethereum is on track to end January in the red for the second consecutive year, pressured by negative sentiment surrounding the Ethereum Foundation and a volatile crypto market.

Ethereum Monthly Returns. Source: Coinglass

However, February could shift investor focus, as it has been Ethereum’s best month historically. Since 2018, ETH has consistently posted positive returns in February, with an average gain of 17.13%. In Feb. 2024, ETH surged 46.28%.

World Liberty Fi holds $250M in ETH and stETH. Source: Arkharm

On-chain data supports a bullish narrative. Arkham data shows Trump’s DeFi platform has accumulated $250 million in ETH and staked ETH, alongside AAVE, LINK, and ENA purchases.Exchange flows also signal that investors show a buy-side bias with increasing net ETH withdrawals across most top exchanges in the past week.

Ethereum Daily Active Addresses (7DMA). Source: CryptoQuant

Further bolstering sentiment, Ethereum’s daily active addresses hit a one-year high of 588,782 on Saturday. However, not all metrics are bullish. Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $136.20 million on Jan. 28, reflecting mixed institutional sentiment. ETH still faces a key hurdle at $3,500, with stronger resistance at $3,777 and $4,101.

Hedera (HBAR) Attempts Breakout as Bulls Defend Key Support

Hedera (HBAR) is trading at $0.3142, up 1.74%, as it attempts to recover ahead of its mainnet upgrade. The token is forming a falling wedge pattern, a historically bullish setup. A breakout above resistance could trigger a 50% rally, with Fibonacci retracement levels indicating $0.40 and $0.49 as potential targets.

HBAR/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI at 50.57 remains neutral but leaves room for further upside, while the MACD at 0.004 signals a buy.

HBAR Forms Cup and Handle, Eyes $0.57 Breakout. Source: X

Analysts are divided on the next move. Shawn Sully highlights a Cup and Handle formation, projecting a potential rally to $0.57 if HBAR clears $0.41 and holds above $0.40. Meanwhile, Eye Future sets a shorter-term take-profit target at $0.3518.

HBAR Spot Inflow/Outflow. Source: Coinglass

On-chain data signals accumulation, with over $10 million in HBAR outflows from exchanges in the past 48 hours. This suggests long-term holders are buying the dip, strengthening the bullish outlook. However, confirmation of a breakout above $0.3275 is needed to validate an extended rally.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Struggles as Whale Transactions Plummet

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is under renewed selling pressure, reflecting a decline in large transactions. Data from IntoTheBlock shows a 61% drop in whale activity, with large transactions falling from 353 to 136 within 24 hours. The total volume transferred by whales also dropped by 55%, from 6.81 trillion SHIB to 3.05 trillion SHIB, signaling waning investor confidence.

SHIB futures open interest hits $347M, led by Gate.io. Source: Coinglass

Despite this, SHIB’s open interest remains strong. CoinGlass data shows 18.24 trillion SHIB ($334.44 million) locked in open positions, suggesting some investors still expect a price surge. Gate.io leads in open interest, holding 81.03% ($271.03 million) of the total.

SHIB rebounded 2.7% to $0.000018 after the Fed’s rate decision, but weak momentum persists. A death cross looms as the 50-day SMA nears a crossover below the 100-day SMA, signaling downside risk.

SHIB/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The SHIB/USDT daily chart shows a descending triangle, a bearish pattern. Resistance at $0.000020 (0.5 Fib) must break for a rally; failure could send SHIB back to $0.000017. If selling pressure intensifies, the 1.618 Fib extension at $0.00000779 is the next target. The ADX at 24.08 suggests weak trend strength, requiring higher volume for a breakout.

Ethereum, Hedera, and Shiba Inu face key tests. ETH’s historical February gains and rising on-chain activity suggest upside, but ETF outflows remain a risk. HBAR’s upgrade and accumulation support a rebound, but losing $0.287 could trigger a drop. SHIB’s falling whale activity raises concerns despite strong open interest.

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